Here’s another piece of Isaac Asimov memorabilia, following my post a few months ago about his visit to Britain 50 years ago. It’s the original magazine appearance of one of his very first short stories, “Trends”, in the July 1939 issue of Astounding Science Fiction. I put my own book The Space Business in the same shot mainly to prove that I do really own a copy of the magazine, although it does have some vague relevance to the subject I want to talk about.
In that earlier post about Asimov, I mentioned getting him to sign my copy of The Early Asimov vol 3. At that point I’d already got the first two volumes, and “Trends” is included in vol 1. That means I would have read it in late 1973 or early 1974, not long after the last of the Apollo Moon landings which I followed avidly. So to me at that time, “Trends” – which describes a very different vision of the first lunar space mission – would have seemed very dated. The idea that the general public would be openly hostile to spaceflight, and that the government would seek to hinder rather than embrace it, were totally at odds with the way things were 50 years ago. But now that we’re well and truly in the “future” (i.e. the 21st century), they’re starting to look distinctly less far-fetched.
On the government side, the biggest problem for human spaceflight seems to be lack of political motivation. America’s need to prove that it was the world’s top technological nation in the 1960s led to the Apollo program, and the joint desire of Russia, the US and Europe to appear to be the best of friends by the 1990s led to the International Space Station. But there’s no geopolitical priority of the same order today, with the result that very little happens. As we approach the end of 2024, it’s worth remembering that NASA’s Artemis program was originally supposed to put Americans back on the Moon this year. But that hasn’t happened. There was an uncrewed Artemis flight to lunar orbit and back just over 2 years ago, but there’s been no visible urgency since then to take the next step.
While the US government seems in no hurry to advance its own space program, it’s been actively hindering developments in the private sector – albeit not quite as blatantly as in Asimov’s story. With two years and counting between flights of NASA’s giant Artemis rocket, the media seemed quite impressed that SpaceX managed just a four-month gap between the 4th and 5th test flights of its own roughly equivalent Starship rocket. But the gap should have been weeks, not months – the holdup was purely government red tape, not engineering readiness.
Asimov’s story portrays government policy towards spaceflight as being driven by public hostility to the idea. What we’re actually seeing is subtly different – government apathy towards spaceflight driven by total indifference on the part of the general public. Ironically, I suspect that Asimov’s successors in the science fiction field have more than a little to do with this. Blockbuster Hollywood movies are now so exciting and visually spectacular that real-world spaceflight can’t hope to compete. Or as I wrote in a recent book review, “It’s a sad fact that space is only seen as cool when it’s fictional; as soon as it becomes factual then it’s strictly for science nerds only.”